I’m believe so too to some extent. As you can read in our article-series of the sub-$3,000 IT infrastructure (Part 1, Part 2), it is certainly possible. Although the idea of running applications on a central server, rather than on the desktops has been around (and that’s were it started) since the very first computers. Both running applications on a desktop and on a server has ups and downs. However, one of the major benefits of running applications on a server (web or local) is the reduced admin work. If a desktop fails, disconnect it, throw in a new one, and you’re up running in less than five minutes. If I think local hard-drives are coming to an end anytime soon? No. But in a corporate setting I think we will see many desktops replaced by thin clients.

If your question refers to running applications over the web instead of on local machines, I’m not equally convinced. Although I embrace the idea, I don’t think the web (as we know it today) is a very well suited platform to replace local applications. But who knows how this will change over the next five years.

>Do you think privacy concerns will keep companies (and the public) from embracing browser based applications?

Yes and no. We’ve already seen a quite rapid growth of web-based accounting systems for instance. If people can do accounting online, I also think people might use other browser-based applications online for other sensitive information as well. Personally I’m quite scared of loosing control of business information by uploading it to someone else’s servers. Instead I think with the growth of virtual machines, we will start to see more and more cheap intranet solutions from major vendors that will allow business users to get (most of) the benefits of a browser-based, while still maintaining control over their data.

As far as the public use of browser-based applications goes I don’t think privacy will be a great problem. Sure, one should always be cautious of what one upload online. It would be stupid to create a Google Doc including your credit card numbers and social security number. However, a lot of the information that one collects is not of that sensitive nature. I most cases, being able to share and collaborate is more important than the security.

Although I love the idea of Google Docs, I still consider it too much beta to be used in a production environment.

Another reason why we use iWork instead of Open Office or Microsoft’s Office in OS X is because it is superior when it comes to design and layout. Just compare the average presentation made in Keynote with the average presentation made in Open Office’s Presenter or Microsoft’s PowerPoint and you’ll see what I mean. Sure, you can probably create an equally good looking presentation in Open Office or Microsoft’s Office as in Keynote, but it will probably take you three times as long and a whole lot more experience in visual design than the average user possesses (sorry…we really like Open Source, but Open Office is still too far behind iWork when it comes to design).